The new book by Martin Gillo
Now available on-demand: Scenario Planning Extreme! The book gives you the information you need about how to prepare for extreme futures.
We live in times of profound change. How do we prepare for a world 25 years in the future? One ingenious answer is scenario planning. It involves exploring various possible futures with a rear-view mirror perspective and developing success strategies for each potential future.
Scenario planning extreme goes one big step further and deliberately includes the possibility of extreme futures including “black swans”, sudden drastic changes that are often ignored as too unlikely and therefore lead to catastrophically wrong decisions by organizations.
This book is both a user’s manual for Scenario Planning Extreme for anyone interested and a kaleidoscope of human thought, including wishful thinking as described by the Emperor’s New Clothes, and head-in-the-sand reality denial. They will keep us from successful mastery of the future. Our goal is to be successful in every future.
Chapters on migration to Europe and the use of psychoactive substances show that scenario planning extreme analyses are more helpful than taboos. They demonstrate that we can be part of the solution only to the extent that we recognize we are also part of the problem.
Martin Gillo sees himself as a lifelong learner with a varied CV: organizational researcher, management consultant in Germany and the United States, human resources manager in Silicon Valley, California, and Geneva, managing director of a U.S. semiconductor factory in Dresden, Saxony's minister for economic and labour affairs, visiting professor of social and organizational psychology, Saxony's commissioner for foreign residents, lecturer, consultant, mentor, and scenario planner in several countries for about 20 years.
What is Scenario Planning Extreme?
The perspective starts with the insight that future developments are unlimited in their range. They don’t follow projections plus/minus a certain percentage. It looks at different possible futures and simultaneously develops success strategies for each of them.
Why is this approach called “extreme”?
Scenario Planning Extreme deliberately focuses on the occurrence of potential “black swans”, i.e. surprising changes that are not captured by quantitative trend analyses. If you have solutions for extreme changes, you also have them for moderate ones.
How does Scenario Planning Extreme fit into our time?
The 21st century is characterized by rapid and sudden changes. For example, artificial intelligence became available to everyone through ChatGPT in November 2023 and gained over one hundred million users worldwide within six weeks. There are several competitors to ChatGPT already, including the Chinese DeepSeek. We are on the threshold of many more dramatic changes to our world that we should consider and prepare for.
Who benefits from Scenario Planning Extreme?
Everyone can benefit from it. I hope that everyone will. This approach also teaches us to continually think about possible changes that could result from new trends in our daily lives. Being flexible about possible future developments also frees us from clinging to our old habits, which may no longer be adequate for the future demands in our world.
What set of mind helps getting ready for Scenario Planning Extreme?
The prerequisites are an open mind and the courage to think about possible changes that threaten my understanding of my environment. Scenario Planning Extreme is a team effort. So be ready to work with people who have a very different understanding of the world than you. Those differences hold the potential for new insights and breakthrough solutions.
What do I need to carry out a Scenario Planning Extreme project?
Ideally, you need a group of 16 to 24 volunteers who are willing to jointly develop innovative solutions for a key strategic question.
Is Scenario Planning Extreme mainly for large companies?
It is equally useful for small and large organizations. Small organizations often find it easier than large ones to consider controversial possible futures. Large organizations can easily be “in love” with their current success recipes to think seriously outside the box.
How involved is Scenario Planning Extreme?
It means gradually involving and convincing decision-makers and employees of the organization. This is easier with a small start-up team than with a large corporation.
In any case, the approach pays off, starting with new perspectives on one's own strengths and opportunities, and identifying innovative strategies that can be used to master possible futures, no matter what they may be.
Why should I buy the book?
Scenario Planning Extreme helps you discover reasons to be optimistic about your future possibilities and those of your organization.